The United States is in the process of starting another Vietnam, but this time around in South America.
We have discussed a lot over the years at Brazzil magazine the subject of other countries trying to take control of the natural resources of Brazil in one way or another.
On this blog I am consolidating some of the information that I had posted on various locations on the web, but they cover about the same subject matter.
The United States and NATO have been busy destabilizing the entire Middle East one country at the time, and also North Africa. They destroyed and made a complete chaos of Iraq, Libya, and now they are working overtime to destroy also Egypt, Syria, then Iran it will be next, then Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and so on....after they are done with the Middle East and North Africa, it seems to me that South America it will be next in line – also one country at the time.
The signs are all there that South America it will be next in line, and the U.S. mainstream media have no clue about the massive mess that is developing in South America - they don't know that the United States is in the process of starting another Vietnam, but this time around in South America.
In a Nutshell: There are many naïve people around the world who think that a country can be a friend of another country, when in reality, in the words of Charles de Gaulle, "in international relations, a nation has no friends, only interests."
Here is what I had posted on my blog on May 20, 2011 “The U.S. Economic and financial system is collapsing just like the Soviet Union” - you can read it at:
http://thefinalcollapseoftheusdollar.blogspot.com/2011/05/collapsing-us-economic-and-financial.html
Noam Chomsky – History of US Rule in Latin America – December 19, 2009
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKwJI9axblQ
Time: 1 hr. 15 min.
History of US Rule in Latin America; Elections and Resistance to the Coup in Honduras - Professor Noam Chomsky PhD. - Filmed by Paul Hubbard at Massachusetts Institute of Technology on 12-15-09
Excellent lecture by Noam Chomsky about Latin America history and United States military intervention in that area of the world.
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Boston University School of Law - April 24, 2008.
Noam Chomsky Lectures on Modern-Day American Imperialism: Middle East and Beyond
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PdJ9TAdTdA&feature=related
Time: 2 hrs.
Noam Chomsky, an emeritus professor of linguistics at Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a well-known political activist critical of U.S. foreign policy, traces modern-day American imperialism to its earliest roots, 25 years before the American Revolution, and he explains how the United States has lived up to its reputation as "the most frightening and dangerous country in the world."
Hosted by Boston University School of Law and the Boston University Anti-War Coalition on April 24, 2008.
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Noam Chomsky on American Foreign Policy and US Politics – October 26, 2010
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rwqkvF7umpk&feature=fvsr
Time: 24 min.
The Young Turks interviews Noam Chomsky.
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Brazil, Spain Challenge U.S. Bases in Colombia - August 2009
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hgIC2x2Rxjk
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Insight: New US military bases in Columbia - CCTV 081609
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0vakgOdQzJw&NR=1
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South American leaders oppose US military base in Columbia - CCTV 082909
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gwHqAzOKeHA&NR=1
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Noam Chomsky - What Right Does the US Have to Intervene? - September 17, 2009
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NVpmpufWbZM&feature=related
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Noam Chomsky - US 'War on Drugs' in Latin America - December 19, 2009
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3Xa8Irev2E&feature=related
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Fault Lines - U.S. Colombia Base Agreement
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sZow3x646cE
At the end of October 2009, the United States quietly signed a deal with Colombia -- its staunchest ally in Latin America, and the largest recipient of US military aid in the hemisphere. The agreement guarantees the United States access to Colombian military bases for the next ten years. The event went practically unnoticed in Washington. But it raised a storm of protest from South American governments threatened by the specter of US military intervention in the region. Fault Lines traveled to Colombia to investigate why US access to the bases is a cause for so much consternation.
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It is no secret to anyone today (at least to people who use their brain to think) that the US dollar has finally reached the end of the line as the main world reserve currency.
It is no surprise that at the end of October 2009 the United States signed an agreement with the Colombian government that guarantees the United States access to seven Colombian military bases for the next ten years.
Since today the Amazon region is home to the largest untapped reserve of gold in the world.
For the people who aren't smart enough to connect the dots to get the picture.
In a Nutshell:
1) The world is waking up to the fact that the US economy and financial system is in intensive care (in a deep coma) and is being kept alive only by massive US government intervention, and the US is getting away with the debasement of its currency only because of the special status of the US dollar as the main world reserve currency.
But for all practical purposes the US dollar has finally reached the end of the road, and the collapse and meltdown of the US dollar can happen at any time.
It's no coincidence that the United States (a desperate country) has started to wage wars all over the place, such as in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, and so on...And the United States government is confiscating billions, and billions of all kinds of assets from all these Middle East countries.
The handwriting is on the wall: If you look around then you realize that it's just a matter of time for countries such as Saudi Arabia to have all its assets including the Saudi government, or any member of the Saudi Royal family to be confiscated in the name of some silly excuse but the real reason it is to pillage their resources.
2) Do I need to spell out the reason why the United States is building 7 military bases in Colombia, and at the same time the US has reactivated the 4th fleet which main responsibility is related to the North of South America ? (The 4th fleet had been dis-activated since the end of WW II).
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Brazil Gold Mining
http://www1.american.edu/TED/bragold.htm
...Currently, Brazil is the world's fourth largest producer of gold and the other countries of the region have begun to increase their investment in discovering and utilizing gold resources. ...the Amazon region is home to the largest untapped reserve of gold in the world.
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"In Amazon Jungle, a Gold Rush Like None Before"
The New York Times - April 25, 1988
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Here is an example of a discussion at Brazzil magazine that took place in August of 2009 regarding the subject of other countries trying to take control of the natural resources of Brazil:
I also make reference on these discussions to my postings at the Elite Trader Economics forum, and at that forum my screen name is: SouthAmerica
Brazil Worried US Is After Its Oil and the Amazon
August 23, 2009
SouthAmerica: Since the enclosed article was published by Brazzil magazine a few days ago an interesting discussion is going on in the comments section of that article regarding the new US military bases in Colombia.
Many questions are being raised by this new military arrangement between the United States and Colombia.
1) Who is going to finance this new US military adventure into South America?
The Chinese?
Why?
2) Why the Colombian government is willing to give up its independence and sovereignty to a foreign power?
3) Why the Colombia government wants to become a country under foreign military occupation?
4) Under the “Andrada Doctrine” (May 30, 1822) – the doctrine that originally established the foreign policy for the Americas regarding foreign interference from foreign powers on the affairs of South American countries – under that agreement Brazil and the some of the other major South American countries are supposed to come to the rescue of Colombia.
But in this case the Colombian government has decided to turn its sovereignty status as an independent country to the United States, and become a country under military occupation by that foreign superpower.
The most important question is: why the Colombians are becoming “Brain Dead”?
Is this the new strategy of the United States to enable the US government to get new resources to be able to pay its future bills that are coming due?
The US government and the new strategy of economic desperation.
You can read all the comments at:
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There were 71 comments following this article:
Brazil Worried U.S. Is After Its Oil and the Amazon.
Written by Raúl Zibechi
Tuesday, 18 August 2009
http://www.brazzil.com/component/content/article/207-august-2009/10237-brazil-worried-us-is-after-its-oil-and-the-amazon.html#comments
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Brazil Worried US Is After Its Oil and the Amazon
August 28, 2009
SouthAmerica: Reply to Hook N. Sinker
You can read the discussion on this subject at the following website:
Brazil VS. Venezuela – The Inevitability of Latin American Polarization.
By reading this article and the comments following the article many of your questions regarding South America that you have it's answered including questions about Brazil, Colombia, Venezuela, the Russians, and the United States.
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Brazil Worried US Is After Its Oil and the Amazon
November 10, 2009
SouthAmerica: We are lucky that we have the BBC News, and European News on our television cable system, otherwise we would not have any idea of what is happening in the border of Venezuela and Colombia.
As usual the mainstream media in the United States is completely missing in action - the U.S. mainstream media is on a dying mode and for all practical purposes they are becoming completely useless - most of the U.S. mainstream media have no clue about the massive mess that is developing in South America - they don't know that the United States is in the process of starting another Vietnam, but this time around in South America.
Hugo Chavez said over the weekend that they are ready in Venezuela for a 100-year war that will engulf the entire South American Continent.
Hugo Chavez is getting very cocky regarding this new war – an indirect war against the United States - and I would not be surprised if in the last few years Fidel Castro has transferred some of his 162 nuclear warheads arsenal that he got from the Soviet Union in the 1960's and have transferred a number of the warheads from Cuba to Venezuela, since he knows that after his death Hugo Chavez is the person who will continue Fidel Castro's work in the Americas.
One thing we know for sure: the United States Intelligence is worth shit, and they have a long list of screw ups to back them up, and most of the time they can't connected the dots even to save their lives.
Right now, the United States Armed Forces might be dusting off their old plans that they used when they attacked Panama in 1989 to get rid off General Manuel Antonio Noriega.
On December 19, 1989, President George H. W. Bush decided to use force against Panama, declaring that the operation was necessary to safeguard the lives of United States citizens in Panama, defend democracy and human rights, combat drug trafficking, and secure the functioning of the Canal as required by the Torrijos-Carter Treaties.
“Operation Just Cause” was justified by the United States as necessary to secure the functioning of the Canal and re-establish democracy in the country. Although described as a surgical maneuver, the action led to civilian deaths whose estimated numbers range from 400 to 4,000 during the two weeks of armed activities in the largest United States military operation after the Vietnam War. For some commentators, the action was not intended only to rid Panama of the dictatorship, but served also to reinforce United States authority over the region right at the end of the Cold War, as well as use Panama as practice field for weapons and strategies that would shortly after be used in the Gulf War.
This time around the new action for the United States war machine will be against Hugo Chavez in Venezuela and it will be called “ Operation We Are Desperate For Oil”.
I am sure that Hugo Chavez is aware of what happened to General Manuel Antonio Noriega in 1989, and he must be prepared for another similar event.
As usual the United States is underestimating the situation in South America, and how quickly the entire mess can spin completely out of control resulting on major unexpected consequences.
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November 11, 2009
SouthAmerica: Reply to Kassz007
You said: “Fidel Castro transferring nuclear warheads to Chavez? Give me a break...produce one morsel of evidence on this and MAYBE your rantings will become more credible...”
I have no way to prove to you that Fidel Castro has transferred a number of nuclear warheads from Cuba to Venezuela. We know from the Soviet Union archives that Fidel Castro is supposed to have 162 nuclear warheads in Cuba, but if he still has all 162 nuclear warheads in Cuba is another story.
There’s an easy way to find out if Venezuela is armed with nukes – if the US Armed Forces tries to invade Venezuela, and the Venezuela Army uses a few nukes against the US forces then that would be evidence that some nukes were transferred from Cuba to Venezuela – the only problem is that the US Army would retaliate with nukes against both countries and at that point the Cubans would need to use as many of their nukes as possible since they know that they would be exterminated as well.
If this US miscalculation becomes a reality and turn it into a major catastrophe, in that case the main event can light up the Americas like never before.
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On November 22, 2002, I was watching a television program on PBS called "Now with Bill Moyers," Mr. Moyers was interviewing a historian, James Blight (he is considered today to be one of the foremost experts on this subject) — he wrote a book about the 1962 Cuban Nuclear Missile Crisis. It was an enlightening interview.
The professor was saying that only recently, (in the last ten years U.S. historians digging into old archives of the Soviet Union) the U. S. learned a lot of new information about the Cuban missile crisis that the United States did not know until now.
He said that the U. S. intelligence thought that Fidel Castro had no nuclear warheads on his island in 1962. Since 1992 the U. S. learned that, in fact, the Soviets had placed 162 nuclear weapons in Cuba. Fidel Castro had been cleared and had all the authorization necessary from the Soviets to use the weapons.
If the United States had attacked Cuba in 1962, then these weapons would have annihilated the invading forces. I am glad that that crisis was resolved with diplomacy. I know that we don't learn lessons from past history, but that particular crisis is a very good example of what we don't know can hurt us in a big way.
Since the U. S. was not aware that Cuba had such a large number of nuclear weapons on the island since 1962, according to the records of the Soviet Union archives and Fidel Castro is getting very old – I would not be surprised if Fidel Castro has transferred some of these nuclear weapons to Venezuela, since Fidel knows that Hugo Chavez is his heir apparent and the person that will continue carrying Fidel’s message in the future to the Americas.
In the last few years Cuba has been very short on cash flow and Venezuela has been doing very well because of its oil revenues – if you connect the dots a few nuclear warheads go one way and a few billion dollars goes in the other direction – a perfect match that serves the needs of all the parties involved on this transaction.
Hugo Chavez is not a dumb individual, and he would not provoke the United States unless if he does have a surprise under his sleeve.
Now that the United States learned that Cuba had these 162 nuclear warheads on its soil since 1962 then the U.S. can demand that Cuba give up these nuclear weapons or the U.S. will impose a complete diplomatic and commercial embargo on Cuba. (This new embargo will be on top of the other embargo that has been in place for decades – by the way, that reminds me of the economic sanctions imposed by the United States on Iran which since 1989 must have reached by now level 20 or higher - and in both cases these strategies have been working great over the years.)
By the way, this thread has been moved to the Chit Chat forum from the economics forum because this discussion has no economic consequences to the United States - a nuclear war among some of the countries in the Americas including the United States it is a minor event on the eyes of Americans - an event with so little consequences to the United States that they consider a subject that don't even deserve to be mentioned. And that summarizes the American mentality in a Nutshell.
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There are 241 comments following this article:
Brazil VS. Venezuela – The Inevitability of Latin American Polarization.
...Why is Colombia giving up its sovereignty as an independent country?
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 28, 2009
Ricardo: Only a moron would not realize that when a foreign superpower has established 7 military bases inside your country then your country status becomes a country under foreign military occupation. And for all practical purposes your country has lost its sovereignty as an independent country. And that is what is happening right now in Colombia.
The big question is: why Colombia decided to give up its independence and sovereignty as a country, and become just a country under foreign military occupation.
Why the Colombian leaders decided to turn the sovereignty of their country to the United States?
Tomorrow when the members of Unasul meet in Bariloche (South of Argentina) to discuss these surprising developments who is going to represent Colombia?
The former members of the Colombian government that are giving up on Colombia’s country sovereignty status, or the new representatives of the military occupying forces of the United States?
My guess would be: the new representatives of the military occupying forces of the United States since today they are the ones that hold real power in Colombia.
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“Colômbia pedirá respeito à soberania em cúpula da Unasul Publicidade”
da Efe, em Cartagena (Colômbia)
Publicado: Folha Online – August 28, 2009
O governo colombiano disse nesta quinta-feira que pedirá respeito à sua soberania na cúpula da Unasul (União de Nações Sul-americanas), que, segundo disse, será uma "feliz ocasião" para falar de temas como a cooperação internacional, a corrida armamentista e a tolerância ao narcotráfico e ao crime internacional.
"A Colômbia mantém um absoluto respeito pela soberania de outros países e exige o mesmo", disse o ministro da Defesa, Gabriel Silva, na Base Naval ARC Bolívar, na cidade de Cartagena (norte).
O ministro visitou a base com um grupo de congressistas, aos quais explicou o acordo que permitirá ao Exército americano usar instalações militares colombianas.
Segundo o governo colombiano, o pacto, que gerou polêmica em países como Venezuela, Equador e Bolívia, só deve ser temido por terroristas e narcotraficantes.
Ontem, o ministro brasileiro da Defesa, Nelson Jobim, que na terça havia se reunido com Silva em Bogotá, afirmou que o governo colombiano está disposto a dar garantias de que o acordo não afetará países terceiros.
O pacto entre Colômbia e EUA é um dos assuntos que os participantes da Unasul debaterão amanhã em Bariloche (sul da Argentina).
http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/folha/mundo/ult94u615789.shtml
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Reply to Episilon Eridan
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 28, 2009
For any chance do you know something that we don't know?
Are the Russians building 7 new military bases in Venezuela and also taking over that country?
All that I am aware is that Chavez bought a few billion US dollars of military hardware from the Russians.
And Brazil should do the same thing - build a new military in Brazil for them to be prepared to defend our territory in Brazil from any military threat from anybody.
Besides the Russians don't need any of the oil from South America including Brazil and Venezuela since they have a large oil reserves.
The Russians also have an immense country full of all kinds of untaped natural resources and the Russians don't need to takeover the natural resources of other countries.
Besides today for all practical purposes Russia is a new capitalist dictatorship state, ruled mostly by the mafia, and not the old communist Soviet Union state.
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Reply to Joao da Silva and to Asp
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 28, 2009
Joao da Silva: Ricardo, are you implying that our Generals lack the necessary "intellectual ability" to lead the nation?
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Ricardo: No. I am not. The Generals did a superb job on the past regarding the Brazilian economy.
I mentioned the name of former president Bill Clinton just as a general guide for the intellectual caliber of a person that I would like to see running Brazil.
I greatly admire former president Bill Clinton for his intellectual abilities – his is a Rhodes Scholar and various members of his cabinet mentioned over the years that when they were explaining to Bill Clinton the most complex subjects, in a matter of minutes he was asking relevant questions on that subject, and that implied that he had complete understanding of what was being discussed – the subject could be regarding financing or most complex issues.
He still is a great politician, and a very smart one, and basically he represents the best the United States has to offer to the world.
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Joao da Silva: Obviously,you are expecting him to use just brute force to "pacify" the population and not to address other "pressing needs" such as education, creation of jobs,etc; to reduce violence.
If I were the General, I would say a loud "No, thanks" to attempts by any party to recruit him and let the group of "intellectuals" that is ruling the country to choose one of its own members to run for the job in 2010. My prediction is that he would just do that !
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Ricardo: I don’t like to talk about this subject, but I am aware of the damage that is being done in Brazil by the drug traffickers and the criminal gangs that are completely out of control.
What good is education, and creation of jobs when a lot of people in many cities in Brazil are afraid of leaving their homes because of these criminal gangs. And I know that the criminal gangs are affecting many businesses on a very negative way, because people are afraid to go home after a certain time in the evening.
Every time I talk to people about how well the Brazilian economy is doing – the usual reply is that Brazilian society is under siege and falling apart because of the crime wave all across Brazil – and it’s not in the big cities anymore, the criminal gangs are growing all over the place including in small communities.
It is like a cancer that is consuming Brazil.
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Asp: your theories, like the a bomb statement that america commited genocide to drop the bombs ( which is a peice of crap, i had an uncle waiting on the boats to invade japan, thank god they dropped the bombs and save millions of japanese and american lives. didnt you hear of the dresdin fire bombs? it was world war 2 , 42 million people lost thier lives, only people examining american hemmoroids up close get uptight about this), are hot air.
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Ricardo: After the United States dropped the first atomic bomb, there’s no justification in hell for the United States to have dropped the second atomic bomb only a few days later.
The United States did not give the Japanese enough time for them to realize what had happen after the US dropped the first nuke.
Let me explain one thing for you that you might not realize – they did not have in those days CNN 24/7, or the immediate communication system that we have today with the internet. The communication systems in 1945 were very slow, and the US did not give enough time for the Japanese to realize what had happened with the first nuke.
It is pure bullshit what you are saying about saving millions of Japanese and American lives. If the United States had waited another week or two to drop the second nuke during that period the Japanese would had the time to access the damaged caused by the first nuke.
The truth is the United States dropped the second nuke just 3 days later because they wanted to test which type of atomic weapon was more effective in mass destruction.
You said: “you make these grandiose statements but can’t back them up”
I don’t need any special back up to the most basic human common sense.
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Reply to Asp
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 29, 2009
Asp: maybe you have done a lot of research on nuclear weapons, but that doesnt justify saying the usa commited genocide on japan.or, in hindsight imply it was wrong when every one else was hacking away at each other.
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Ricardo: I never used the word genocide in any of my postings – that is your conclusion.
I said that the United States had two completely different types of nuclear weapons, and the US needed to test both nuclear weapons to see which one was the most effective nuclear weapon of mass destruction.
Get over your guilt trip, and stop making excuses. The US dropped the second nuke over Japan because the US needed to test the second nuclear weapon. It was just a scientific test to move forward the knowledge for mankind about nuclear weapons – as I hear all the time on US television when a bunch of innocent people die, because a US made bombs kill senior citizens, woman, and children – they are justified just as a case of “Collateral Damage.”
Please don’t feel bad since when you use the term “Collateral Damage” that fix everything, and becomes O.K. to destroy vulnerable and innocent people.
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Just a reminder:
… the nuclear weapon "Little Boy" was dropped on the city of Hiroshima on Monday,[1] August 6, 1945, followed on August 9 by the detonation of the "Fat Man" nuclear bomb over Nagasaki. These are to date the only attacks with nuclear weapons in the history of warfare.
The bombs killed as many as 140,000 people in Hiroshima and 80,000 in Nagasaki by the end of 1945, with roughly half of those deaths occurring on the days of the bombings. Amongst these, 15–20% died from injuries or the combined effects of flash burns, trauma, and radiation burns, compounded by illness, malnutrition and radiation sickness. Since then, more have died from leukemia and solid cancers attributed to exposure to radiation released by the bombs. In both cities, most of the dead were civilians.
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As you can see the “Collateral Damage” in Nagasaki were just 80,000 people.
If you want to feel better about that event then just ask yourself why it was a case of “Collateral Damage” in the Nagasaki case?
Because all these innocent people – most were civilians - were in the wrong place at the wrong time – somehow they found themselves on the path of an exploding US nuclear bomb.
I saw the actual films that they have from that event when they went inside these cities after the US nuked them – and most of the people who were nuked to a crisp were senior citizens, woman and children. Neither city was a military target.
If you read most of my articles you see that my mindset is not stuck in the past – Soviet Union, communism, cold war, Fidel Castro, Che Guevara, Holocaust and so on…
I write about what Brazil has to do to move into the future, a great future, and a prosperous future, and I am not inside the box looking for all kinds of excuses why Brazil can’t accomplish this or that.
Regarding Brazil’s future I don’t see any limitations that can’t be overcome.
I don’t give a shit about Hugo Chavez, and all these other guys from Latin America.
When I say that the future of Brazil is more connected to China, and not with the United States it is because I am a realist – I live in the United States and I can see how everything is collapsing around here, and becoming obsolete very fast – and how the US economy today is completely distorted by massive US government intervention of every kind. The US economy is on imploding mode.
Today I was reading the latest issue of “Business Week” magazine and the cover story is about the decline of US technological know how. The very issue many Americans think is going to help them to create new jobs and help them get out of this massive economic mess.
My view of the United States has nothing to do with the past the communism bullshit and everything else, and the anti-American propaganda. My view of the United States it has to do with the future, and what is in store for Brazil, and the United States.
I can write an entire book showing all aspects of US economic decline in the coming years, and its impact on US prestige around the world, its imploding economy, its massive cumulative debt, and everything else.
I posted something that I wrote this morning about the holocaust on the following website:
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Reply to Forrest Allen Brown
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 29, 2009
Forrest Allen Brown: the coulmbians have not given up there country and the US is not building 7 baces we will coshare them with coulmbia most the US troops will be trainers and observes .
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Ricardo: The US does not co-share military bases – the US tells them what to do.
What this agreement is saying to the rest of the world is that the Colombian Army is so incompetent that they had to outsource the defense of their country to the United States.
I don’t blame Hugo Chavez for thinking that he has the right to rebuild his new Simon Bolivar Empire – when a piece of the empire has been given away for nothing by a very incompetent supposed government of Colombia.
It is one thing to have some foreign military advisers, but it is another thing when you turn over to a foreign superpower your entire military defense capabilities – the way is happening right now in Colombia.
The Colombians are too stupid to figure out, but Israel has been receiving a massive amount of foreign aid from the United States for over 30 years – these foreign aid is mostly made of all kinds of toys that can be used in war – and most of these toys were in display when Israel destroyed almost the entire country of Lebanon about 2 years ago.
But the Israelis never turned over all their military bases to the United States – they still are in control of their own destiny.
The “Pathetic” Colombians are turning over the control of their military bases to a foreign superpower in turn they are becoming a country under foreign military occupation. The Colombians are just a bunch of idiots if you ask me.
They are not even smart enough to figure out that they could have played the old cold war games, and get a lot of stuff from the United States without having to give up their sovereignty status as an independent country, and become a third-rate country under foreign military occupation.
And some people want to create a union in South America similar to the European Union. Anyway why Brazil should even consider, and who in his right mind would want to be part of any union made up with such a “Pathetic” losers?
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Forrest Allen Brown: ans yes chaves has given russia and irian his okay to have troops in his country and help in training .
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Ricardo: And so what?
What did you expect?
Chavez just bought billions of dollars in all kinds of new weapons from Russia from helicopters and so on… Do you expect that the basically uneducated people from Venezuela would know how to use the new toys without some training from the Russians?
The Russians are not building or taking over all the military bases in Venezuela. They are there just for training purposes and possibly trying to sell even more stuff to Chavez.
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Forrest Allen Brown: and if the US is going down than why are you still there move to china enjoy the new commie econey
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Ricardo: Why should I move to China, when I can go back to the greatest country in the world – Brazil?
Look the way you refer to China: “china enjoy the new commie econey” – that tells me more about your mindset than anything else – that it is frozen on the past and that it is not aware of the massive transformation that has been going on for many years.
You need to lose that commie BS and get on with the new program. Today China is giving lessons about capitalism to the United States, and China is the country that is holding the US economy afloat.
Those “commies” as you said on your posting are holding the US by its balls to the tune of trillion of US dollars. Those commies are becoming the new masters, and the old master is slowly becoming the slave. When your country is in debt to its eyeballs you are in deep trouble – and there is no two ways about it.
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Reply to Asp
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 29, 2009
Asp: your holocaust ideas are full of ignorance
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Ricardo: Which Holocaust ideas are you talking about?
All I said is that the Jews used that theme too many times, and most people are saturated of that story, and basically we are sick and tired of that subject.
Besides the Jews have learned nothing from their experiences from the time when they were repressed from biblical times to the 1940’s.
The first chance they had they became the people who are repressing other people – the Palestinians from Gaza comes to mind. And they have not learned a lesson on humanity as well – and the entire world have been witnessing all the time on CNN news and on the BBC news the Israeli attacks on the Gaza strip, and the devastation that they live behind – most of these attacks kill senior citizens, woman, and children. And CNN news and the BBC news also covered in detail the destruction that Israel inflicted on Lebanon 2 years ago - and again the real people who were affected by this massive destruction were the vulnerable members of society; senior citizens, woman, and children.
That is the modern image of the Jews in Israel to the rest of the world. Today they are the people who is doing the damage and the repression, and the entire world have been following it some times live on CNN news and on the BBC news.
And the more we watch on a regular basis that stuff on CNN news, and on the BBC news the more the old memories of the Holocaust is erased and it is replaced by the new realities and events.
A picture is worth a thousand words – and CNN news and the BBC news are documenting the new Jewish and Israel realities.
Anyway, for some reason the Jews believe that they have a monopoly regarding human holocausts.
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Asp: there is nothing like the numbers of people dying and displcaced going on in the last 50 years.....except the khemer rouge and what is happening in the congo
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Ricardo: What all that has to do with the future of Brazil?
Besides you forgot to list a lot of misery that happened and still happening around the world such as in the Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, the millions of people who died in China, and so on…
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Asp: people like you just dont get it, but, world war 2 is still too close in the memory to just forget about it.
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Ricardo: What is the cut off point for this memory stuff?
What happens to the memories of WW I, the US Civil War, the other holocausts that happened around the world, the holocaust of the native American Indians in the United States, and so on…?
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Asp: and all you are doing is guessing about the future
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Ricardo: Please tell me what is the alternative.
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Asp: and you have been massivly wrong in the past (about obama).
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Ricardo: Yes, I was a diehard supporter of “Al Gore” all the way to the end.
I am very disappointed that Al Gore did not enter the presidential race last year, but I understand why he didn’t – he is making a ton of money as a private citizen.
When he lost the presidential election in 2000, he had a personal net worth of about US$ 2 million dollars, and last year it is estimated that his personal net worth to be around US$ 200 million dollars. His personal net worth grew 100 times in just a matter of years.
And as a private citizen he can continue making a ton of money.
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Asp: insignifacance of the holocaust
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Ricardo: Most people that I know are saturated about the stories of the holocaust. You just can hear about that stuff up to a point and have a sense of sympathy, and after that it became a subject that loses its initial impact and it becomes a story that that were over used.
When you beat to death any story eventually people just became saturated of it, and that is how works human nature.
By the way, why you use 2 different names to post on Brazzil magazine?
Asp = Forrest Allen Brown
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Reply to Asp
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 29, 2009
Asp: r amaral...your arguments are so grandiose and generalised that many people of many differant back grounds disagree with you.
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Ricardo: You really believe that people from other parts of the world such as in Africa, and Asia, disagree with me on this subject?
Then you agree that in the last 40 years the most important news around the world is coming from Israel, and that the entire world should be hostage to what happens in Israel all the time.
Israel has been hogging the news for a long time at least here where I live. I know a lot of very intelligent people who has tuned Israel off completely.
People are saturated of that subject to the point of they don’t care to what happens to that country anymore.
People started realizing that there is more important things happening around the world than the never ending problems of Israel.
It is completely disproportional the attention that Israel gets all the time from the main stream media and the size of its economy, population, and so forth…In my opinion, the constant support that the United States gives to Israel goes completely against the self-interests of the United States as a country in the short and long-term.
On your mind you might consider it a grandiose statement, but if you give a minimum amount of rational thinking to this subject then you would realize that I am right.
The world is getting sick and tired of the old holocaust theme – Israel can’t keep using that same old line of: poor me I am a victim of the holocaust, and at the same time they have been inflicting all kinds of pain and misery on a regular basis on the other vulnerable people around their neighborhood.
I am not religious, I don’t practice any religion, and I don’t attend any religious services of any kind, and I don’t care what kind of religion most people practice themselves. It does not matter to me a bit if someone practice any religion including the Catholic, Protestant, Jewish, Moslem (Shiite or Sunni), Buddhist, or any other type of religion.
When I look at the Israel case as a country, the subject of religion does not influence me, and my point of view, only the facts and common sense.
This is not generalizing unless you are disconnected from the world news provided by CNN news, and the BBC news:
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Ricardo: Which Holocaust ideas are you talking about?
All I said is that the Jews used that theme too many times, and most people are saturated of that story, and basically we are sick and tired of that subject.
Besides the Jews have learned nothing from their experiences from the time when they were repressed from biblical times to the 1940’s.
The first chance they had they became the people who are repressing other people – the Palestinians from Gaza comes to mind. And they have not learned a lesson on humanity as well – and the entire world have been witnessing all the time on CNN news and on the BBC news the Israeli attacks on the Gaza strip, and the devastation that they live behind – most of these attacks kill senior citizens, woman, and children. And CNN news and the BBC news also covered in detail the destruction that Israel inflicted on Lebanon 2 years ago - and again the real people who were affected by this massive destruction were the vulnerable members of society; senior citizens, woman, and children.
That is the modern image of the Jews in Israel to the rest of the world. Today they are the people who is doing the damage and the repression, and the entire world have been following it some times live on CNN news and on the BBC news.
And the more we watch on a regular basis that stuff on CNN news, and on the BBC news the more the old memories of the Holocaust is erased and it is replaced by the new realities and events.
A picture is worth a thousand words – and CNN news and the BBC news are documenting the new Jewish and Israel realities.
Anyway, for some reason the Jews believe that they have a monopoly regarding human holocausts.
Most people that I know are saturated about the stories of the holocaust. You just can hear about that stuff up to a point and have a sense of sympathy, and after that it became a subject that loses its initial impact and it becomes a story that that were over used.
When you beat to death any story eventually people just became saturated of it, and that is how works human nature.
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Reply to Asp
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 29, 2009
By the way, there are more important issues for the rest of the world to focus on in the 21st century than Israel.
Why the world should waste any more time on the subject of Israel when we know that it would be a waste of time trying to deal with those fools. Barack Obama or anybody else are going to get anywhere with Israel – that is a dead end cause and issue.
The world should move its attention to countries such as Brazil, China, India, Russia, and even the African continent – and that would be a more productive use of everybody’s time and effort on the coming years.
It is very clear on my articles that I am a nationalist, and so what.
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Reply to Joao da Silva
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 30, 2009
Joao da Silva: Though I do not belong to that group of "intelligent people", I turned it off a very long time ago!! Incredible it may sound, I have some very nice Jewish friends (of Nth generation) in U.S. that really don't give a s**t either. They are proud of their religion, but not fanatics.
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Ricardo: What I am trying to say is that even the most intelligent group of people have been tuning off all matters related to Israel. Everybody is getting tired of listening to the same old story over and over again.
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Joao da Silva: Now you are talking like a real Brasilian. Not many outsiders know that Brasilians are very secular whether during the Military Government or under the democracy.
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Ricardo: Many of my friends are also secular people. It seems to me that the more education one has the less emphasis they place on religion when they talk about most subjects.
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Joao da Silva: A very good question, though I wouldn't classify all the citizens of Israel as "Fools"!! In a way, yes. They are also being lead by a bunch of "old and senile fools".
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Ricardo: As I mentioned before a number of times I am not anti-Semitic. I know that the Jews are among the smartest group of people around, and most Jews that I have met over the years were very intelligent, and very smart. And you can see it on the list of names of the Nobel Prize laureates over the decades. And I have a number of friends who are Jewish. I even had a friend who was Jewish (he passed away about 2 years ago) that hated the state of Israel and he also thought that many of their leaders are just troublemakers.
When I said they are a bunch of Fools I was referring to the current group of old leaders that are in power right now in Israel, and these old Fools don’t know when it is time for them to retire and get out of the way.
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Reply to Asp
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 30, 2009
Asp: false brazilian nationalism is stuck in phobias about the usa, not really getting the big picture of the cold war and beleiving the hype that the usa is the biggest enemy to south america.the usa is not the best freind of brazil but isnt the worst enemy. one has to be vigilant against the usa's attempts to get things its way, but, once that vigilance is set in place its just hard negocieting
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Ricardo: I leave you on your cave and your own world going nuts about the cold war days – being afraid that Castro is coming to get you plus the Farc, Correa, Che Guevara, Hugo Chavez, the Soviets, and all the commies are out to get you.
Please give a break from all your bs about phobias against the US, about the US being the biggest enmy and so forth.
Who needs your soap opera about poor old USA?
If you have been reading my articles over the years then you would know that the USA could care less about South America after the implosion of the Soviet Union, and that was before they started finding all this oil in South America.
Brazil instead of crying over spilled milk moved forward and made many new connections around the world including with China, and some of the countries of the Middle East. And the new strategy worked great for Brazil.
Since various countries in South America started discovering lot of new oil, then suddenly the United States want to go back to a time long gone – the days that the US had major influence in South America.
The US abandoned South America and now the US is begging to get its influence back.
I guess it is a bit too late since all the action today is happening in China, and not in the United States.
In essence today the United States represents the past, and Asia represents the future.
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Asp: false brazilian nationalism wont acknowledge the race problem and sluff it off by saying there is none - a real brazilian nationalist would want to confront its histroy and recognise the great barriors in its society and be concerned how to fix it.he would want to do that because that is what would be the best for the brazilian people and brazil
a false nationalist actualy thinks ideologies like marxism can confront the problem , and even have a soft spot for castro and the cuban revolution ( certainly not your case, amoral,ive said that many times so you know i never stereotyped you into that. i only say you are suckered into making stock moda phrases about the usa that you dont even realise came from the stale soviet union propaganda page )
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Ricardo: You are so brainwashed about communism, Marxism, Fidel Castro, Cuban Revolution, and your mind is buried in that past – you live on a world long gone. I am sorry for you. And Fidel Castro is one of the last links to your world, and he will be gone before you realize it - And then what?
What happens when the “bicho papao” is gone?
I know the Soviet Union and communism is going to rise from the dead and get all of you.
I am not a slave to any ideologies of the past or present, but it seems to me that you are. Your mindset is pure cold war propaganda and nothing else. That is why you are so afraid of all these minor league characters that scare you so much; including Chavez and so on…For all practical purposes Fidel Castro already has one of his foot on his grave.
Your mindset is buried in the past, but are you aware that former presidential candidate Bill Richardson and the current Governor of New Mexico spent the past week in Cuba negotiating for a new relationship between Cuba and the United States.
I know you have the right to be stuck and to live in the world of Cuban revolution and so forth, but right now the reality is that even the Cubans are ready to move forward into the future with new ideas, prosperity and a new way of life.
But if you are enjoying the Che Guevara era and the Cuban revolution please stay there – very often I go and visit a friend on a nursing home and a number of people living on that nursing home also live in the past – and some even live in complete La La Land.
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Reply to Asp
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 30, 2009
Asp: im not going to get in a long discusion about isreal and the middle east. its a much more complex issue than your black and white cartoonish portrayal.
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Ricardo: There’s nothing “cartoonish” about what I see on the news on a regular basis.
A Palestian boy with a slingshot being shot to death by heavily armed Israeli soldiers that made headlines around the world.
Or the complete destruction of a country from the air – dropping a massive amount of cluster bombs that still killing many kids in Lebanon to this day because they think that these little pieces of metal left behind by these bombs are toys and then they blow up on the kids face.
We saw the devastation on a daily basis and the bodies of senior citizens, woman and children on the news as the result of where the Israelis had dropped their bombs.
We see all the time the same devastation happening on the Gaza strip where Israeli gunships come on a regular basis and bombard civilian areas to the ground.
There’s nothing “cartoonish” about any of these constant Massacres (carnificina) inflicted by the Israelis on very vulnerable and unprotected people.
And that is the image that has been projected by the mainstream media to the rest of world to see about Israel – an image of severe repression, ruthlessness, and unbridled tyranny.
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Asp: im not tired of remembering world war 2 and the holocaust. it just educates me more and more of the real evil and depth of horror that humans can go to and makes me happy that my country is engaged in the world, inspite of having made some horrible blunders under really bad leadership...no i dont want to forget at all
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Ricardo: You have the right to live on the past. Maybe if you live long enough in the 1940’s to 1960’s then you might be able to fix it the way you want.
Sorry my friend, but I am more concerned and interested about the future and the things that can be accomplished today and in the future.
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Reply to Asp
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 30, 2009
Part 1 of 2
Asp: you can have your theories and generalisations. you cant even understand what is happening in your own country. the daily slaughter in your big cities from the drug wars is a cancer that is taking an enormas toll, but you cant even look at the reality of it.you cant even see how chavez, and correa and morales take their cues right from fidel, right now and into the future , and work the drug money and arms sales to fortify their ideological stances in the region. this is the dynamic that is dominating south america right now, but you cant see it.
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Ricardo: Let me put in a way that you can understand a little better.
There is serie “A” where you have your major players then there is serie “B” where you have the minor league players. For all practical purposes Chavez, Correa and Morales are part of the minor league players.
But you are so in love with these players that you want very badly to elevate them to serie “A” status.
But at the end of the day, they still are mediocre players and they belong to serie “B”.
Your perception that they belong in serie “A” it does not make these guys serie “A” material.
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Asp: .but, i just smell huge hypocracy in the area when people like you get uptight about colombia inviting the usa in to their bases to help deal with scum who are aiding and abetting their ideological brothers to do their dirty drug and arms deals that do affect brazil directly...
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Ricardo: Please save the bulls**t that the US is trying to take over Colombia because of the drug traffickers. That has been going on for decades. That’s a very old story.
The Civil War in Colombia has been going on for almost 40 years – and the United States could not give a s**t about the Farc, and the civil war in Colombia.
The only thing that has changed is that they started finding oil in Ecuador, Colombia, new reserves in Venezuela, and an immense amount of oil in Brazil.
If we did not have all this new oil discoveries, then the US could care less for South America, the Farc, and the drug traffickers.
Not even the Russians and the Chinese follow communism today. I understand that you have been brainwashed and all these guys are going to get you.
But the essence of these new US military bases in Colombia it is about chasing new sources of oil supplies. IT”S ABOUT OIL and other natural resources. The US is desperate about its current oil prospects and the future.
These military bases in Colombia will be only temporary anyway.
Remember we have an imploding economy in the United States, and at the same time we have exploding red ink of the US government budget – about 3 days ago the latest estimates of the US government shows that in the next ten years the US government deficit spending will reach at least $ 9 trillion dollars.
The US government annual budget is exploding with red ink as far as the eye can see.
The US also has an exploding senior citizen population (the people over 65-years old).
The baby boom generation is getting old, and every year from now on there are an extra 3 million Americans for the US government to take care and provide Social Security, Medicare, Pension, and so on – these old folks are growing at a geometric rate.
Let me see the options that will be available for the US government:
1) The US government has been pissing away massive amounts of money in military bases and wars around the world.
The mainstream media in the US has been reporting that the United States is losing the war in Afghanistan even tough Barack Obama doubled the number of American soldiers in Afghanistan since he became president in January 2009.
There is a major difference between Vietnam and the current war in Afghanistan. Afghanistan is where former superpowers go to die a slow death – and the Soviet Union comes to mind, and now it is the United States turn.
The US still has that mess in Iraq to deal with, and that mess cost a ton of money.
Now the US want to piss away even more money on its pursuit of oil resources in Colombia and its neighbors.
The ironic part of all this is that the US government is trying to run all its global military adventures on borrowed money – mainly from China today. In 2009 the United States will borrow about $ 500 billion dollars from China to keep the US government afloat.
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Reply to Asp
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 30, 2009
Part 2 of 2
2) On the other hand the United States has this massive amount of senior citizens making all kinds of demands of the US government budget.
But there’s a difference here, these old folks vote and the politicians don’t want to get this group of people mad.
What is going to be?
A) Continue to piss away lots of money in military adventures around the world including in Colombia.
or
B) Take care of the old folks at home with their massive demand on the US government annual budget.
There is another problem on top of that.
Who is going to finance all of this in the coming years?
The Chinese are waking up, and they started to realize that all the money they are lending to the US government, their US assets is being turned into Confetti. (In plain English is becoming worthless over time.)
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Asp: you are in gaga land, a fantacy about what you think is happening mixed with your fairy tales of how you think it will go
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Ricardo: In the fantasy world that I live in we had a complete collapse of the capitalist system; including the demise of the investment banking system of the United States. These major banking houses survived the US civil war, 2 world wars, a major economic depression, but they all died a sudden death in 2008.
We did not have a total economic meltdown only because of massive US government intervention that still is going on.
The US economy that everybody associates with the United States it does not exist anymore. It is gone – died of a massive heart attack in 2008.
The latest issue of Business Week the cover story is about the decline of US hi-tech. I am not surprised, since I am aware that 100,000 Indians – the new generation – went back to India from the United States – and these are the person who starts new hi-tech businesses in Silicon Valley.
These young entrepreneurs think that they have a better future in India than in the United States, and they moved on to better pastures.
In the last 2 years for the first time the United States is having reverse immigration of the illegal population that live in the US. And during the years of 2007, and 2008 about 2 million illegal immigrants returned to their countries from the United States. These people are like the canary in the coal mine and they serve as an alert sign regarding the disastrous state of the US economy.
It is not only Wall Street that exploded in 2008. In 2009 the auto industry in the United States the symbols of American capitalism such as General Motors, and Chrysler had to file for bankruptcy protection, and these major companies re- emerged after bankruptcy just as a little ghost of its prior selves.
In a Nutshell: The United States that most people think of that country does not exist anymore for all practical purposes. What we have today is just the carcass of the old country that people still think that it is alive.
The days of military adventures around the world it is just a matter of time for it to catch up with the new realities affecting the United States economic system.
Look at what happened to the Russian military budget after the fall of the Soviet Union, and that might serve as a very good guide about what is in store for the United States military budget in the coming years.
Eventually the military adventures has to end since the taxpayers at home have to make hard decisions regarding the annual government budget – it is very expensive to keep the military adventures going forever.
Money is the issue that put the British Empire out of business, and also the Soviet Empire. Now it is the turn of the United States.
At a certain point everybody runs out of money or credit; as it is the case of the United States today.
The world is not going to allow the United States to continue with its military adventurers around the world on credit.
The party is over.
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Reply to Asp
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 30, 2009
Further clarification:
The latest issue of Business Week the cover story is about the decline of US hi-tech. I am not surprised, since I am aware that 100,000 Indians – the new generation – went back to India from the United States – and these are the person who starts new hi-tech businesses in Silicon Valley.
The Indian exodus from the United States - that number is for the year of 2008 alone. That trend probably still going on strong in 2009.
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Better word
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 30, 2009
In the last 2 years for the first time the United States is having reverse immigration of the illegal population that live in the US. And during the years of 2007, and 2008 about 2 million illegal immigrants returned to their countries from the United States. These people are like the canary in the coal mine and they serve as an "red flag" regarding the disastrous state of the US economy.
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Reply to Joao da Silva and Forest Allen Brown
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 31, 2009
Joao da Silva: My questions: a) Are these illegals returning out of their own will? b)Why are so many Brasilian poor and unskilled wanting to get into the U.S. illegally and stay there forever, if our economy is doing so well?
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Ricardo: Yes, the illegal immigrants are going back, because they can’t secure jobs of any kind and these are the people who would do any type of work to make a buck. These are hardworking people who had the courage to leave their original countries to try for a better living in the United States.
But in many cases they are leaving because they think that there are better opportunities in their own countries than in the United States – and that is the case of the exodus of Brazilians, and Indians that are returning home from the United States.
Many of these Indians are 2nd and 3rd generation, but they are leaving behind their parents, and grandparents here in the United States for better opportunities in India in the coming years. And that is a fact that already has caught the attention of the US mainstream media.
You can read some information that I wrote about the Brazilian exodus from the USA at the following thread:
The economic impact of the current Exodus from the United States
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/...did=123740
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Forest Allen Brown: And why was lula omited from the list of B players ???????
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Ricardo: That’s a very foolish question from you.
If you are asking that question then you have no idea about is happening in the world today.
President Lula is president of one of the best countries in the world when you consider: in term of size, in terms of location in our planet, population, in terms of natural resources Brazil is one of the few countries around the world that could be completely self-sufficient (Brazil could close all its borders, and would miss only the high luxuries that comes from the outside world other than that Brazil is one of the few countries from around the world that could be almost 100 percent self-sufficient – we have everything in Brazil that a nation needs to survive without any contact with the outside world), Brazil is in the leading edge of software technology, we also have leading edge Biotechnology, and Brazil is making advances in many other areas of high science and technology.
Today, for the first time I found out that Brazil already has nuclear weapons, and the United States is aware of it. And that give us Brazilians a little more peace of mind about our capabilities of defending our territory in Brazil.
And now I understand why Brazil is so quiet regarding the subject of nuclear weapons.
I could go on and on, on this subject, but that is enough for our discussion at hand.
How do you dare to compare Brazil with Ecuador, and Venezuela?
That’s an insult to Brazil and the Brazilian people.
If you are not aware of every time the G-20 gets together, it does not matter in which country the meeting takes place – the host of that country always place president Lula on a prominent position right next to the host – when they take pictures, or are having meetings, or are having a diner – Lula is always being showcased as a very import guest.
Lula’s prominence among these world leaders at these high level meetings of world leaders reflects the rising status of Brazil among the nations of the world.
Today the G-20 is the relevant group that meets on a regular basis, and the G-7 and G-8 are becoming more obsolete than General Motors.
Please don’t ask stupid questions like that, because it shows only your ignorance, and nothing else.
President Lula met a number of times the leaders of the various South American countries, including Venezuela, Ecuador, and Colombia, since these countries are also part of South America.
But he also had the opportunity of meeting Barack Obama a number of times in 2009 – I guess on your view that makes Barack Obama a member of the list of “B” players as well following your line of reasoning.
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Reply to Asp
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 31, 2009
Asp: see, you have made up your mind about it..that is your biggest falicy, you seem to think you know exactly what is going to happen...no one who is really good at economics can predict for sure what could happen.and they will tell you that. those that speak in absolutes in economics are really naive
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Ricardo: How naïve?
Do you mean this naïve?
It’s 2008. The U.S. Has Dragged the World into a Depression.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=124509
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Asp: the x factor you are leaving out is that there could be some really smart people who could pull it together.
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Ricardo: How?
Are these people miracle makers?
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Asp: but lets see...if you are wrong , you will look very foolish again..
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Ricardo: I have been writing about the future for at least 10 years, and if you read my articles and my postings over that period of time you would be shocked about how many times I have been right about my predictions.
I write about things before they happen, and I have many published articles and information posted on the internet, and I am not a Monday morning quarterback.
I receive emails from people who have been following my articles and postings on the Elite Trader Forum and these people ask me my opinion about what I think about the future. They do that because they know that I have been getting things right.
Here is an example of a private email that I receive today, and my answer to that person investment/trader:
August 30, 2009
“I have read your predictions over time and they have been very accurate. I personally feel the market is over extended with a lot of bullish sentiment. It looks dangerous and I feel we are headed much lower. What do you think over the next 3-4 months.
Thanks.
Mr. XXX”
***
Here is my reply to that fellow that I just sent back:
August 31, 2009
Dear Mr. XXX,
I just saw your email a few minutes ago.
The market it does not make sense to me.
I can’t help you.
With so much US government intervention on everything, and today you can’t trust any of the numbers that are being published because they fudge all the information with their “Mickey Mouse” accounting and so on…
There’s not a single market that Bernanke is not affecting these days with his manipulation of the markets.
Not even Einstein could figure out what is really going on these days. Only the insiders who are helping Bernanke with his manipulation of the markets have any idea of what is happening.
But without massive US government intervention we are all in the dark and nobody really knows what the real numbers look like.
About 2 weeks ago I wrote a few of my thoughts at:
Another "Sucker's Rally"
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/...genumber=6
Common sense tells me that the US stock market should go down, but who knows what Bernanke and his palls in the private sector are up to?
For many months I have the feeling that the stock market is being manipulated at the end of trading – usually in the last half hour the manipulators come in and do their magic with very thin trading.
The risks must be very high right now of anyone being caught in the trap of these guys.
But if you are a trader and your long-term perspective is buy something in the morning and sell it by the end of the day – then enjoy what is going on, and I hope you make lots of money. And just keep in mind you are just playing craps and nothing else.
***
Many of these people who ask me these questions about the markets they are investing real money, and they are not just playing in the internet.
You build your credibility over a long period of time, and my record is pretty good that is why more and more people are reading my articles and my postings.
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Reply to Augustus
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, August 31, 2009
Augustus: Consequently, I urge each and every one of you to provide moral support to these brave ANTI-CHAVEZ elements, with our combined HOPE that, in the end, TRUTH and LIBERTY will PREVAIL in CARACAS
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Ricardo: Why are you so worried about what is happening in Ecuador, and Venezuela?
Why are you asking Brazilians to get involved on their internal affairs?
Do you want that all these people start also calling and doing the same thing regarding the internal matters of Brazil?
It looks to me that you are trying to attract all the attention of all the Marxists and Che Guevara followers in South America against Brazil.
Would you be happy if all these Marxists start putting their noses in the internal affairs of Brazil as you are doing regarding the internal affairs of these countries?
I am not sure if you understand that this is a 2 way street.
Please stop being so paranoid about the internal affairs of these countries, unless you don’t have anything better to do with your time.
Why are you provoking all the Che Guevara revolutionaries in South America?
Do you want to see all these guys interfering in the domestic affairs of Brazil?
Your postings make you look like a paranoid person regarding these minor league players.
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Reply to Asp and Augustus
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, September 02, 2009
Part 1 of 3
Asp: by the way , the nytimes just said that a few banks are paying back their loans and the government is actualy getting a profit back...
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Ricardo: I also read the front-page article on the Financial Times (UK) about that.
The Fed claims that they have a $ 10 billion US dollars profit right now. But after you read how they came up with that figure then you realize that is a crock of s**t and nothing else. And they should be embarrassed of giving to the public that kind of garbage.
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Augustus: Ricardo. Based on various recent debates we had regarding matters stemming from actual and/or potential issues pertaining to some of Brazil’s Latin American neighbors, it appears exceedingly unlikely that we might ever be in a position to reach a consensus, let on alone an agreement.
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Ricardo: That is the beauty of freedom of speech – we both can discuss matters and have our different points of views.
And some of the other readers might learn something from both points of view.
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Augustus: Indeed, because many of these issues appear on the surface to involve matters that might be considered exclusively of an domestic/internal nature, Ricardo Amaral’s naïve and/or isolationist views do not seem to grasp the possibility that any of them could in the long term have (in some indirect but tangible ways) an unavoidable impact on Brazil.
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Ricardo: I am not an isolationist. On my last posting I just pointed out that Brazil is one of the few countries from around the world that has the capability of surviving by itself without any outside influence of any kind. We have everything inside Brazil that a country needs for long-term survival from plenty freshwater, and a vast amount of natural resources of every kind.
Brazil is one of the most valuable “Jewels” we have on our planet.
If I were an isolationist I would not be suggesting on my articles that Brazil borrows the amount of US$ 200 billion dollars from China.
I also would not be suggesting that Brazil adopts the “New Asian Currency.”
I am just careful about to which countries Brazil associate with, and create deep roots for the long-term.
Brazil already has a very good economic relationship with Argentina, Uruguay. These are the countries with deep European roots – they are countries of the first world.
The rest of the other countries I don’t care if they all become part of the New Simon Bolivar empire that Hugo Chavez want to unit in South America.
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Augustus: In addition, Ricardo always assume that I’m fearing military invasions or direct interference from any such country and therefore concludes that my concerns are irrelevant and stem from my “obsession” with historical East/West conflicts related to the Cold War era.
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Ricardo: I am not going to waste any time worrying about the cold war years.
If there are a bunch of people that are not aware that the Soviet Union has collapsed, and they still are playing Che Guevara around the Amazon jungle – that is their problem and not mine.
Let them play Che Guevara revolutionaries around South America as much as they want – as long as they stay away from Brazil.
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Reply to Augustus and Joao da Silva
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, September 02, 2009
Part 2 of 3
Augustus: As an example, assuming Brasilia adopts Ricardo’s point of view, and further assuming the worse case scenario whereby all Spanish speaking South American countries adopt the Neo-Marxist Bolivarian system and thereby become closely allied with the totalitarian (and potentially) bellicose government in Caracas, I’m certain that, under this theoretical futurist scenario there would significantly bad consequences for Brazil, including:
1.Brazil would be encircled by rivals (as opposed to partners) pledging allegiance to a Strong Man in Caracas;
2.A much more Powerful, resource rich, and military strong Venezuela (possessing direct control over a string of client states) would inevitably adopted increasingly bolder positions in the international arena;…
… Venezuela would expect (and eventually DEMAND) that Brazil oppose and/or antagonize any of its enemies (e.g. the United States)
… Presuming a combination of the above scenarios (from 3A to 3F) come to fruition, Caracas might start implying “serious consequences” for Brazilians in the event their “expectations” were not met by Brazilians.
… Finally, particularly if Case 3G occurs, Ricardo Amaral would witness his own country giving up its “sovereignty” (using his own words) by inviting Washington to establish or otherwise utilize existing military Bases in Brazil in order to deter or otherwise protect the Brazilian Territory against any possible Venezuelan interference which incidentally appears to be the way Colombia currently finds itself.
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Ricardo: You sound like a PR man for Hugo Chavez cause in South America.
You magnify Hugo Chavez’s influence in South America 1,000 times than the reality.
Many of the countries that you are afraid of them they are completely destitute, and they are glad of getting a few bucks from Hugo Chavez.
By the way, the Colombians must be the most stupid people in South America since for many years now they are the second country that receives the largest annual foreign aid from the United States (the number one country has been Israel since the 1970’s).
US foreign aid all kinds of military equipment, thanks, gunships, and everything else. And the United States had many soldiers in Colombia training them how to use all these weapons and also strategy to fight the drug trade and the Farc.
By comparing Brazil and its capabilities with Colombia, Venezuela, and Ecuador – all I can say is that you have a very low image and expectations about Brazil.
You are underestimating Brazil and Brazilians in every way.
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Joao da Silva: Hate to butt into a debate between a Carioca and a Paulistano Mineiro!!
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Ricardo: I am a Paulista / Paulistano. My immediate family is from Sao Paulo, S.P.
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Joao da Silva: Provided a party sponsors him and I doubt if any will.
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Ricardo: What was the political party that General Castelo Branco belonged?
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Joao da Silva: I second your motion considering that India is not only an ally but a very important trading partner of ours.
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Ricardo: Here is something that we all agree.
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Augustus: The only other possible solution would emerge IF we were "blessed" by a successful COUP D'ETAT in Venezuela which would make sure Chavez is promptly executed...
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Ricardo: Aren’t you being a bit drastic regarding Hugo Chavez’s future?
In my opinion, I don’t care about what he does in Venezuela, and even if he decides to unite Venezuela, Colombia, Bolivia, and Ecuador into a new union, and he can name it the “Destitute Union.” - As long he keeps his business out of Brazil.
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Reply to Forrest Allen Brown
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, September 02, 2009
Part 3 of 3
Forrest Allen Brown: brasil is still a B player in the world and will be as long as you have the large uneducated population .
will be a B as long as the crouption runs the country .
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Ricardo: Do you consider the United States a B player?
Most US kids today don’t even know in which century the US civil war happened. And in math and science they score in the bottom of the list of the industrial countries. The US kids today are semi-literate.
Regarding corruption there’s no country in the world that comes close to the United States in that area. Here is the tip of the iceberg regarding US corruption:
We can start with the US government $ 700 billion dollars swindle of October 2008 (also called the Wall Street bailout), then move on to the savings and loan scandal of the 1980’s that cost American taxpayers over $ 200 billion US dollars, WorldCom, Enron, Tyco, and the $ 65 billion US dollars ponzi-scheme by crook Bernie Madoff – just to mention a few cases of corruption in the United States.
But most of these can be considered amateurs compared with the following:
1) The American Mafia and its influence in the US economy
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/...did=168590
2) The US dollar and the biggest default in history
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/...did=121313
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Forrest Allen Brown: lots of indians are leaving the US because the new government in india has started a push for tech compines in india owned by indians .
and also the US has started a push to move out the welfare living alians ,
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Ricardo: Thanks for the information. I was not aware that the US government was replacing the highly educated Indian population that are returning to India (this is a highly educated group of people with PhD’s, and a very smart bunch of people) – with the uneducated illegal immigrants that are being pushed out of welfare.
It is a very smart move by the US government, and that strategy might help move the US even faster to the poor house.
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With choices like that who needs this kind of friends?
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, September 02, 2009
Part 1 of 2
Ricardo: Today, I friend of mine sent me the link to this article, which is relevant to our current discussion.
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Asia Times Online
September 3, 2009
THE ROVING EYE
US's 'arc of instability' just gets bigger
By Pepe Escobar
United States and strategic competitors Russia and China - with Pipelineistan as a defining element.
The full spectrum dominance doctrine requires the control of the Pentagon-coined "arc of instability" from the Horn of Africa to western China. The cover story is the former "global war on terror", now "overseas contingency operations" under the management of President Barack Obama's administration.
Most of all, the underlying logic remains divide and rule. As for the divide, Beijing would call it, without a trace of irony, "splittist". Split up Iraq - blocking China's access to Iraqi oil. Split up Pakistan - with an independent Balochistan preventing China from accessing the strategic port of Gwadar there. Split up Afghanistan - with an independent Pashtunistan allowing the building of the Trans-Afghanistan Pipeline bypassing Russia. Split up Iran - by financing subversion in Khuzestan and Sistan-Balochistan. And why not split up Bolivia (as was attempted last year) to the benefit of US energy giants. Call it the (splitting) Kosovo model.
Kosovo, incidentally, is known as the Colombia of the Balkans. What Washington calls the "Western hemisphere" is a sub-section of the New Great Game. The linkage between the recent military coup in Honduras, the return of the living dead - that is, the resurrection of the US Navy's Fourth Fleet in July 2008 - and now the turbo-charging of seven US military bases in Colombia is not to be blamed merely on continuity from president George W Bush to Obama. Not really. This is all about the internal logic of Full Spectrum Dominance.
Touching bases
Twelve South American nations, under the Union of South American Nations umbrella, got together in Bariloche, Argentina, last week and after a heated seven-hour discussion only managed to stress, somewhat meekly, that "foreign troops cannot be a threat to the region" - in reference to the US military presence in Colombia. At least President Lula da Silva of Brazil will be asking Obama to get together with South American presidents and reveal what this new military pact with Colombia is really all about.
Spin, of course, prevailed. Influential Brazilian conservative newspaper O Globo, which for all practical purposes looks like it's been redacted in Washington, practically blamed Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez for everything.
It's instructive to examine how some of the sharpest South American minds view it. Uruguayan writer Eduardo Galeano (whose book, Open Veins of Latin America was offered to Obama by Chavez at the recent Organization of American States summit) in an interview to an Ecuadorian paper, stressed how the US had spent a century fabricating military dictatorships in Latin America, so when there's a military coup, such as in Honduras, Washington is at a loss for words.
As for the military bases in Colombia, Galeano said they "offend not only Latin America's collective dignity but one's intelligence".
The US has already set up three military bases in Colombia, plus a dozen radar stations. Now this will be upgraded by the Colombian government to seven bases, one of them - Palanquero - with air access to the whole hemisphere. Seven bases in Colombia is a natural Pentagon response to the US losing the Manta base in Ecuador, and losing its grip on now leftist Paraguay. Washington already trains the Colombian armed forces, special forces and the national police.
The infamous Fort Benning-based School of the Americas, the flagship US training ground for ultra-repressive military dictatorships, that is, the "School of Assassins", re-baptized in 2001 the Western Hemisphere Institute of Security Cooperation, trained not only over 10,000 Colombians, but the coup leaders in Honduras as well.
Argentine political scientist Atilio Boron goes for the jugular; for him, "To think that those troops and weapons systems are based in Latin America for some reason other than to insure the territorial and political control of a region that experts consider the richest one on the planet in terms of its natural resources - water, energy, biodiversity, minerals agriculture, etc - would be unforgivably stupid."
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With choices like that who needs this kind of friends?
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, September 02, 2009
Part 2 of 2
American political activist and author, Noam Chomsky, in an interview to Venezuelan-American lawyer Eva Golinger during his recent visit to Venezuela, explained how the "rose wave" of South American leftism is scaring Washington so much that it's forcing it to collaborate with every government that would have been summarily deposed a few decades ago. Chomsky refers to the Joao Goulart government in Brazil, which was toppled in 1964, giving way, under US supervision, to "the first national security state neo-Nazi-style". Lula's policies today are not that different from Goulart's.
North Atlantic Treaty Organization all over
Colombia has received over US$5 billion from the Pentagon since Plan Colombia was launched by president Bill Clinton way back in ... the year 2000. Colombian President Alvaro Uribe rules over a captivating land infested with paramilitaries and extra-judicial killings - scores of peasants and trade unionists killed in cold blood. But he's praised in Washington as a human-rights hero.
Isn't that swell? In a 1991 unclassified Pentagon intelligence report, then-senator Alvaro Uribe Velez is described as "dedicated to collaboration with the Medellin cartel at high government levels". The report stresses Uribe "has worked for the Medellin cartel and is a close personal friend of Pablo Escobar Gaviria", the archetypal, now dead, Colombian drug lord. No wonder Uribe has always fiercely fought any possible form of extradition treaty.
Boron describes Uribe as "the empire's Trojan Horse". It's this Trojan Horse that allows what is in fact a counter-insurgency operation to be packaged as a "war on drugs". Needless to say, Colombia remains the number one supplier of cocaine to the US - Plan Colombia or not.
The counter-insurgency is also in large part directed against, who else, Venezuela's Chavez, who, in his innumerable casual moments, makes no secret that he "knows Uribe, and his psychology, very well". Golinger, author of a must-read book on Washington's overall strategy, Bush vs Chavez: Washington's war on Venezuela, told Russia Today that "Plan Colombia really does not have the objective of addressing directly the war on drugs"; it's more about the "control of natural resources and strategic resources".
Way beyond Venezuela, this is all about the militarization of the Andes and beyond. Colombia is, yes, the Trojan Horse in charge of policing virtually all of South America, not to mention Central America, now that US political, economic and military hegemony is shrinking by the hour.
The beauty of Plan Colombia is its one-size-fits-all status - from AfPak to Mexico. Few people know that in April 2007, the former US ambassador to Colombia, William Wood, was sent to Afghanistan to implement ... a Plan Colombia, that is, counter-insurgency disguised as a war on drugs. Colombia is a mirror of Afghanistan - and vice-versa. It goes without saying that counter-insurgency-heavy Afghanistan - now under the supreme boot of former death-squad operator to General Davis Petraeus in Iraq, General Stanley McChrystal - still produces over 90% of the world's opium.
And inevitably that's where NATO comes in. The only part of the world where NATO is still not active is ... South America. Few people also know that a few months ago, the head of the Pentagon's Southern Command, Admiral James Stavridis, became NATO supreme commander. Three of the past five NATO top military commanders - Stavridis, Bantz Craddock and Wesley Clark - moved to NATO glory from ... the Southern Command, certainly adding another meaning to the gloomy expression "School of the Americas".
No wonder Bolivian President Evo Morales said in Cuba, in mid-July, "I have first-hand information that the empire, through the US Southern Command, made the coup d'etat in Honduras." And all this while not only Mexico and Argentina - but also Brazil and Ecuador - are on their way to decriminalizing drugs.
War on drugs? So much for the cover story. More like the Pentagon stuck in the business, to quote Galeano, of insulting Latin America's intelligence for a long time to come.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/S...3Df01.html
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Venezuela and Hugo Chavez = “one trick pony”
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, September 03, 2009
Augustus: Brazilians currently enjoy but which unfortunately share with very few of our neighbors, most notably Uruguay, Chile and Peru. It’s an essential human right which is denied in Venezuela, Bolivia, and very soon, also in Ecuador.
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Ricardo: You said: “denied in Venezuela, Bolivia, and very soon, also in Ecuador.”
You forgot to list Colombia on your list.
Anyway, for all practical purposes these 4 countries are “irrelevant” regarding the future of Brazil.
The future of Brazil is connected to Asia in the coming years and “relevant” countries such as China, India, and Japan.
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Augustus: Here again, I repeat, that I agree with your assessment about Colombia, Bolivia and Ecuador”. Yet, you seriously underestimate the potential of Venezuela IF such an union takes place under the control of Hugo Chavez and/or his dangerous “Bolivarian” political movement. Indeed, based on my hypothetical scenario above, I truly believe you are not assessing the potential danger which a Stronger, Bigger and Ideological ardent Venezuela could pose to our country, particularly in view of its proximity and IF it enters MERCOSUL.
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Ricardo: In my opinion, Venezuela, and Hugo Chavez is nothing more than a “one trick pony.”
Hugo Chavez needs every dime that he can get from oil revenues to develop his own country. And the Venezuelan economy is a one-product economy – oil – and nothing else.
Bolivia and Ecuador are completely destitute countries, and Colombia has some natural resources but it is engulfed in a nasty civil war.
You guys are all afraid of a “one trick pony.”
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Note: What is a One Trick Pony?
The slang term “one trick pony” is used to refer to something that can only be used for one very specific application. The term is also used to describe people; for example, a chef who can only produce one really good dish might be known as a one trick pony. The term is generally used in a disparaging way, since it suggests a lack of flexibility and an inability to work outside very specific parameters. Most people try to avoid creating or becoming a one trick pony for this very reason.
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Asp: noam chompsky is s**t in my book...he had a 20 page report on columbia and its hook up with the usa military industrial complex and had one paragraph on farc calling them freedom fighters ....oh ho ho haha what a peice of crap...this whole thing is a one sided stupidity that will only hold south americans back...what paranoid
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Ricardo: The author of that article is Pepe Escobar and he is a regular columnist at Asia Times Online.
I am not sure about his nationality, but his main audience is the people from Asia.
The Farc used to be called freedom fighters for first 35 years of the Colombian civil war, but since they found lots of oil in Ecuador, and in Colombia and started attracting the attention of the United States then the Farc became a terrorist group from the point of view of the United States.
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Reply to Asp and Augustus
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, September 03, 2009
Ricardo: Asp you are so upset that Hugo Chavez has been buying military arsenal from the Russians. And today the Russians are present in Venezuela to show to the Venezuelans how to operate all that military equipment.
And you are all claiming how dangerous Hugo Chavez is for Brazil. According to you guys he is the boogieman of South America.
Let’s clarify how worried the Brazilian government is regarding this Boogieman.
I posted the following on the Elite Trader Forum in January and in July of 2006.
You guys probably are not aware that Brazil was the country that was negotiating the military arms sells to Venezuela until the United States blocked that deal.
Only after that Hugo Chavez went shopping for his weapons in Russia.
If the United States had not blocked that nice deal with Venezuela, then today the Brazilian military would be the one training the Venezuelans instead of the Russian.
Brazil lost a nice size contract that would have generated a lot of good paying jobs in Brazil.
The Russians are laughing all the way to the bank, and Brazil lost a nice piece of change because of the United States.
And that is part of real history my friends, that you are trying very hard to ignore.
And after that original deal worth billions of US dollars went through I am sure it would have been followed by further purchases by Venezuela of military equipment made in Brazil – creating even more jobs in Brazil.
I know it is more convenient for your mindset that Hugo Chavez is buying his military equipment from the ugly, scary, and bad Russians.
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July 28, 2006
SouthAmerica: Quoting from a Reuters article published in January 2006: “Embraer finds itself in an unwanted spotlight over the potential sale of surveillance planes to Venezuela. The Venezuelan government has expressed interest in buying Super Tucano patrol planes from Embraer…..”
After the US government blocked the sell of over 30 airplanes from Embraer in January 2006 – a contract worth millions and millions of dollars for Embraer which would have created new jobs in Brazil and a nice profit for this Brazilian company – Instead Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez is giving this nice aircraft contract to Russian companies with the compliments of the United States.
Thanks a lot.
Now the US government is not only completely powerless in trying to stop this transaction with the Russians – but on top of that Hugo Chavez is going to acquire much more advanced military aircrafts which are a lot more dangerous than the ones he was buying from Brazil.
Brazil lost a substantial aircraft contract because of US interference and Hugo Chavez ended up with a much more powerful arsenal.
What a bunch of “FOOLS” we have in Washington today.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/...ost1147909
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“Brazil Embraer suspends plans for Florida factory”
Reuters - Fri Jan 13, 2006 10:33 AM ET
By Todd Benson
… The cancellation of the Pentagon contract comes as Embraer finds itself in an unwanted spotlight over the potential sale of surveillance planes to Venezuela. The Venezuelan government has expressed interest in buying Super Tucano patrol planes from Embraer, the same model that the Colombian military recently agreed to purchase.
But Brazilian officials and Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez have said that the United States was trying to block the sale since the planes included U.S. technology. Chavez, a former paratrooper who staged a failed coup in 1992, has tense relations with the George W. Bush administration.
The United States also tried to stop Spain from selling military planes to Venezuela on similar grounds. But on Friday the Spanish government said it intended to go ahead with the deal without Washington's support and would sell 12 transport and maritime surveillance planes to Venezuela.
Chavez said this week he would wait to see if Brazil could solve the problem over the Embraer planes. If not, he suggested Venezuela could buy similar aircraft from China.
Embraer, the world's fourth-largest producer of commercial aircraft, has declined to comment on the potential deal with Venezuela.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/...post951178
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Reply to Augustus
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, September 03, 2009
Ricardo: Noam Chomsky, is a prolific author and Institute Professor Emeritus at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Today, he is considered to be one of the leading intellectuals in the United States.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Noam_Chomsky
I admire Noam Chomsky, and I enjoyed very much the times he was a guest on The Charlie Rose Show.
Chomsky really got my attention when he was being interviewed a few years ago at The Charlie Rose Show, and he praised Brazil and the Brazilian people in many ways. He spoke so highly of Brazil on that television show that I became an immediate fan of Noam Chomsky.
And Noam Chomsky spoke with authority about everything that he said about Brazil – he had great understanding and knew very well the subject that he was talking about. He impressed me with his knowledge of Brazil.
That old fellow besides being super smart, he also has very good taste.
In my opinion, Noam Chomsky is an outstanding human being.
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Reply to Asp and Augustus - old perceptions and the new realities
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, September 03, 2009
Ricardo: The enclosed article is a reality check for the folks that their mindsets are stuck in the past.
The coming economic system changes in Cuba it has already started with baby steps.
Today when I was reading the Financial Times the enclosed article caught my attention.
The article said: “…At a recent closed door meeting of accountants in Havana, a presentation by the Ministry of Planning and Economy appeared to advocate co-operatives, if not small private businesses. The ministry has become the centre of efforts to improve the economy since earlier this year Raul Castro replaced the entire economic cabinet, inherited from his ailing brother Fidel who retired in February 2008.
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“Havana eyes easing of retail sector controls”
By Marc Frank in Havana
Published: September 2, 2009
Financial Times (UK)
The Cuban government is considering easing its stranglehold on the retail sector in an effort to legalise the underground economy and reduce massive theft. It is President Raul Castro's second big economic reform after last year's decentralisation of agriculture and the leasing of idle state land.
A recent communiqué from the Communist party's central committee suggested change was coming to one of the world's two remaining Soviet-style command economies, the other being North Korea.
"Raul stated the key premises for economic policy to the end of the year and next were decentralisation of the assignment of resources to services and production that generate the most earnings for the country . . . and the search for new formulas that free up productive potentials," it said.
Cuba is battling a liquidity crisis, shrinking production and increased pressure from a frustrated public and creditors. The government cut imports 30 per cent and the state budget 10 per cent this year, and reduced its growth forecast from 6 per cent to 1.7 per cent.
Policymakers believe that up to 20 per cent of supplies flowing to thousands of retail businesses and cafeterias are stolen - from bags of rice and beans, wheat and yeast to merchandise and tools, parts and cement. Much of the remainder is poorly used, Cuban economists said.
"The only way to stop theft is to give workers an incentive not to steal and to work, and that means they have to have a real interest through a co-operative form of property or small business," said one of the economists, who asked to remain anonymous.
Phil Peters, Cuba analyst at the Virginia-based Lexington Institute, said that Cuba "long ago acknowledged state management failures in retail and service businesses, where workers are paid little, cheat consumers and resort to black market supplies to keep cafeterias and repair shops operating. The government would be smart to abandon these businesses."
At a recent closed door meeting of accountants in Havana, a presentation by the Ministry of Planning and Economy appeared to advocate co-operatives, if not small private businesses. The ministry has become the centre of efforts to improve the economy since earlier this year Raul Castro replaced the entire economic cabinet, inherited from his ailing brother Fidel who retired in February 2008.
"State-run socialist companies must be efficient and . . . what they need for their optimal performance must be guaranteed," the report said. "The remainder of the economy must adapt to a form of property better suited to the resources available."
The PowerPoint presentation, obtained by the Financial Times, blamed the centralised economic model's "low efficiency" and "excessive state protection of the population's consumption" in part for the country's economic problems.
Some Cuban economists have long argued that the state should focus on large companies and wholesale trade and get out of the retail business, which it has monopolised since 1968.
Now the state-run media have taken up the refrain in earnest. Juventud Rebelde, the official newspaper of the Union of Young Communists, and Ariel Terrero, state-run television's popular economic commentator, are leading the charge.
"Why should there be co-operatives only in agriculture? It is an organisational principle valid for other sectors," Omar Everleny, an economist, told Juventud Rebelde.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1d34...ck_check=1
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Instead of being so Paranoid - open your eyes and see the new opportunities.
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, September 03, 2009
Ricardo: Hugo Chavez is doing a very good job in destroying the Venezuelan economy.
He should not be looked as an enemy of Brazil instead he should be looked at as a good customer.
The more short falls they have in Venezuela regarding all kinds of foodstuff and other products, the more opportunities to sell the Brazilian goods on their market.
We should look at Venezuela as a very good growth market for all kinds of Brazilian products as their economy continues to go to hell in a handbasket.
The way thigs are going there is the potential that some day Venezuela might be importing even oil from Brazil.
In essence Hugo Chavez: instead of being a threat to Brazil as some people on this forum believe, in reality he provides new good business opportunities for Brazilian companies – just to sell Brazilian products, and not for Brazilian investments in Venezuela, since he is nationalizing everything in sight.
And he has the oil revenues to be able to pay his bills.
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Note: "go to hell in a handbasket"
This phrase, meaning "to deteriorate rapidly", originated in the
U.S. in the early 20th century. A handbasket is just a basket with
a handle. Something carried in a handbasket goes wherever it's going
without much resistance.
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“Chávez blamed for coffee industry plight”
By Benedict Mander in Santa Cruz de Mora
Published: September 3, 2009
Financial Times (UK)
It saddens Don Luis Paparoni, who is almost 90, to summon up memories of the heyday of Venezuela’s coffee production.
“You see these hills?” he asks, gesturing to the lush green valley around Santa Cruz de Mora, a picturesque town at the lower reaches of the Venezuelan Andes. “They used to be carpeted with coffee plants. Now you’ll scarcely find any.”
Venezuela was one of the world’s top coffee exporters in the early 20th century. But for the first time last month the country was forced by looming shortages to import coffee from Brazil, even though locals say it is no match for the local quality Arabica beans.
“When I was young there wasn’t a single household in this town that didn’t have something to do with coffee. It was at the heart of our culture,” says Mr Paparoni, whose father immigrated from Sicily to establish one of the most productive coffee plantations in the Andes in the 1920s.
…Although successive governments have done little to stem the decline of Venezuela’s coffee industry, concentrating instead on exploiting the country’s vast oil reserves, growers blame clumsy intervention by President Hugo Chávez’s government for coffee’s plight.
Shortages prompted Mr Chávez last month to expropriate the country’s two largest coffee roasters, Fama de América and Café Madrid, which account for almost 80 per cent of production. He blamed the scarcity on hoarding, speculation and smuggling.
“We’ve had enough of this! We must do the same with all companies that behave this way,” thundered the socialist leader. “We are going to continue nationalising monopolies to turn them into productive businesses in the hands of the workers, the people, the revolution.”
But analysts say many of the problems confronting coffee production – and the private sector in general – are caused by precisely this kind of government intervention. Such expropriations, as well as an aggressive land reform campaign, have generated a climate of uncertainty that has damped investment.
…While production of some foodstuffs such as maize and rice has increased in this period, the production of beef and sugar, in which Venezuela used to be self-sufficient, is today barely half national consumption.
Once Venezuela’s main export, cacao production has remained at colonial levels, eclipsed by the rapid growth of the oil industry since the 1920s, strengthening the currency and making exports uncompetitive.
Now coffee is feeling the pinch. Once almost rivalling Colombia’s production, Venezuela produces less than 1 per cent of the world’s coffee. It is feared that production of coffee could slip to less than 45,000 tonnes this year, well below what is needed to satisfy national consumption of about 70,000 tonnes.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fa1b...ck_check=1
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Reply to Augustus
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, September 04, 2009
Augustus: Because I am radical and uncompromising on certain principles which I consider quintessential and above all I do not tolerate hypocrisy, I could never in good faith, be in a position to have anything short of a basic diplomatic relations and token trade with nations whose political systems which I do not approve.
Because I do not approve Radical socialist countries with One-party rule, especially those which…
•have the audacity to proclaim multiparty system in an environment where there is no freedom of press,…
•hardly any private radio or TV network,…
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Ricardo: Then you must hate China, and the fact that China is the lifeblood that is keeping the US economy afloat.
On your opinion, the US should stop borrowing from China, (the US should tell China to keep its $ 500 billion US dollars that the US is borrowing from China in 2009) and also buying all kinds of products made in China. (Anything that you see inside any Walmart store in the US about 90 percent of the merchandise comes from China)
That must piss you off since Walmart is buying some much stuff from China – from these ugly communists.
Based on your mindset the United States should have only basic diplomatic relations with China, cancel all flights and reduce trade to a trickle.
That is… JUST TO GET STARTED!
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Reply to Joao da Silva
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, September 04, 2009
Joao da Silva: I was reading with great interest about the plight of the coffee plantation owner (Mr.Paparoni) in Venezuela, the declining production of Cacau, etc.; and the opportunities that country presents for the Brazilian businessmen to export all kind of food stuff. Of course, all these happened because of bad planning and over dependence of oil on the part of Mr.Chavez and there is only one person the Venezuelans can blame for electing him and giving him a third, fourth, Nth mandate to him. Obviously they can not blame the Yanks nor the Brazilians for it.
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Ricardo: That’s why I said: Venezuela and Hugo Chavez = “one trick pony”
They are placing all their eggs in one basket (oil) at the expense of everything else – which is not good for Venezuela in the long run.
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Joao da Silva: Assuming that he completely screws up the economy and it opens up an enormous opportunity for us, do you know what the implications for the domestic consumers of food items in Brasil? With all the ruckus going on over the exports of food to the Middle East, the beef, poultry and dairy products have already gone up by almost 60 % on an average over the past 2 1/2 years. In case you are not aware, "to consolidate" our position as "leading exporters" of such products, there was a merger of 2 leading companies forming one "Giant". These two companies lost a Billion reais each last year on currency speculation and the government had to bail them out.
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Ricardo: I would not worry about. Exports from Brazil accounts for only 12 percent of GDP.
By the way, India also their exports account for only 11 or 12 percent of GDP.
A global crisis affects a lot more the economies of countries such as Germany, Japan, and China than Brazil and India.
The large companies adjust their production requirements based on what they are selling to these foreign markets.
The cost of all these items that you mentioned can be affected by a number of things.
If I had to make an educated guess without looking all the data to try to figure out what is really going on – my best guess would be that the “cesta basica” is up grading the diet of the Brazilian population (the people that are receiving this assistance from the Brazilian government) and more demand on these items that you mentioned is pushing the prices up since the producers did not have time to adjust the supply regarding this new demand.
I am aware that some of these giant companies in Brazil lost their shirt in the foreign exchange market when they made their hedged in the futures market and they lost a ton of money.
Remember these companies get their advice on these matters from the international bankers. They got the wrong advice and they got screwed in a big way.
That is one of the main reasons why I want Brazil to adopt the “New Asian Currency” to avoid in the future and try to eliminate the maximum exposure possible to foreign exchange fluctuations that are completely outside of their are of expertise.
The wrong move regarding foreign exchange can create massive losses for these companies and even put them out of business.
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Joao da Silva: Lets say that this "Giant" goes to Venezuela to set up their meat processing plants (sure to be financed by BNDES), what guarantee is there that the good Col.will not nationalize the industry, like good ole Evo did with the refineries and Correa told to take a walk with respect to the Hydroelectric dam project that another "Giant" construction company was constructing?
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Ricardo: Remember I said sell all kinds of products to Venezuela. I did not say invest in that country, since Chavez might nationalize it in the same way Evo nationalized Petrobras’ investment in Bolivia.
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Joao da Silva: Regarding your comments Brasilians furnishing arms for them: Whom are they going to fight against? Guyana as they tried to pick up a fight with last year? or to protect themselves from the American invaders who are pouring into their land through Colombia.
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Ricardo: Venezuela is just building some kind of military to take on Colombia. That would be my guess.
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Joao da Silva: IMHO, Augustus is right. There is going to be a polarization all right and only the Brasilian voters can tell those idiots like Chavez, Evo, Raul, etc; that we are not push overs.
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Ricardo: Polarization exists in South America since the “Tratado de Tordesilhas” in 1494 – when the Pope divided South America into 2 distinct pieces: the Spanish Empire, and the Portuguese Empire (Brazil).
http://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/T...ordesilhas
Since then there is nothing new on that part of the world.
Maybe one can make a case for Mercosul.
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Reply to Joao da Silva
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, September 04, 2009
Ricardo: Joao, you asked me a question why the illegal immigrants are leaving the United States.
By the way, the US government does not have an idea of how many illegal immigrants are living here in the United States today and the estimates range from 12 to 20 million people.
Here is part of the answer:
The New York Times
September 3, 2009
Editorial Section
“Workers in America, Cheated”
An important new study has cast an appalling light on a place where workplace laws fail to protect workers, where wages and tips are routinely stolen, where having to work sick, injured or off the clock is the price of having a job.
The place is the United States, all across the lower strata of the urban economy.
The most comprehensive investigation of labor-law violations in years, released Wednesday by the Center for Urban Economic Development, the National Employment Law Project and the U.C.L.A. Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, surveyed 4,387 workers in Los Angeles, Chicago and New York. Its researchers sought out people often missed by standard surveys and found abuses everywhere: in factories, grocery stores, retail shops, construction sites, offices, warehouses and private homes. The word sweatshop clearly is not big enough anymore to capture the extent and severity of the rot in the low-wage workplace.
Workers told of employers who ignored the minimum wage, denied overtime, took illegal deductions to pay for tools or transportation, or forced them to work unpaid before or after their shifts. More than two-thirds of them had endured at least one wage violation in the previous workweek. More than a quarter had been paid less than the minimum wage, often by more than $1 an hour. Violations typically robbed workers of $51 a week, from an average paycheck of $339.
The report paints an acute picture of powerlessness. Of workers who had been seriously injured on the job, only 8 percent had filed for workers’ compensation — a symptom, researchers said, of the power of employer pressure. Although 86 percent of respondents had worked enough consecutive hours to be entitled to time off for meals, more than two-thirds had had their breaks denied, interrupted or shortened. Workers who complained to bosses or government agencies or tried to form unions suffered illegal retaliation: firing, suspension, pay cuts or threats to call immigration authorities.
It is, of course, morally abhorrent that the American economy should be so riddled with exploitation. But it is also powerfully evident that there are practical consequences when the powerless are abused. Low-wage workers spend a high proportion of their income on necessities; when their paychecks are systematically bled by greedy employers, an entire community’s economic vitality is sapped as well.
The answers are basic, though too long ignored. Government needs to send more investigators to back rooms, offices and factory floors, and to enlist labor organizations and immigrant-rights groups as their investigative eyes and ears. Penalties for wage-law violations need toughening. Employees who have historically been denied basic labor rights — domestic workers and home health aides — need to finally be given the protection of wage-and-hour laws. Companies must not be allowed to skirt their legal obligations by outsourcing hiring to subcontractors, letting others break the law for them.
The report has particular significance for immigrant workers, who made up 70 percent of the survey (39 percent of them were undocumented). Workplace abuses are flourishing in the absence of a working immigration system, where illegal immigrants are vital to the economy but helpless to assert their rights.
The report upends the argument that the way to help American workers is to make illegal immigrants ever more frightened and exploitable. Only by protecting all workers will the country begin to rebuild a workplace matching its ideals of decency and fair play.
A version of this article appeared in print on September 3, 2009, on page A30 of the New York edition.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09...3thu2.html
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Chávez confirma projeto nuclear com a Rússia...
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, September 14, 2009
Folha de Sao Paulo
14 de Setembro de 2009
“Chávez confirma projeto nuclear com a Rússia e mais gastos militares”
http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/f...3418.shtml
… Nos últimos anos, a Venezuela comprou equipamento militar russo, como 24 caças-bombardeiros Sukhoi-30, 50 helicópteros MI-17, M-26 e M-35 e 100 mil fuzis AK, tudo isso por mais de US$ 3 bilhões, segundo fontes russas.
Segundo o governante venezuelano, o novo arsenal inclui 92 tanques T-72 e "um poderoso sistema antiaéreo" com um número não revelado de foguetes "reativos".
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“Rússia paga US$ 1 bi para operar campo de petróleo da Venezuela”
http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/f...3371.shtml
… O presidente da Venezuela, Hugo Chávez, disse neste domingo que empresas russas vão pagar um bônus de US$ 1 bilhão ao país pelo direito de operar um campo de petróleo pesado da Faixa do Orinoco.
Venezuela e Rússia acordaram a criação de uma empresa mista para explorar o Bloco Junin 6, onde esperam produzir entre 400 mil e 450 mil barris por dia de petróleo.
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Reply to Augustus
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, September 14, 2009
Augustus: I wonder whom the Argentine will select, given the fact that the list is getting narrower by the day....
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Ricardo: The British...
Ha, ha, ha…..
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Regarding the new US military occupation of Colombia…
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, September 16, 2009
Part 1 of 2
Ricardo: Regarding the new US military occupation of Colombia…After the US military occupation of Colombia is complete can ink in the finger type of elections in Colombia be far behind?
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15/09/2009 - 22h58
“Reunião da Unasul termina sem consenso; Colômbia não apresenta acordo com os EUA”
Folha de Sao Paulo
A reunião de ministros da Unasul (União de Nações Sul-Americanas) terminou nesta terça-feira em Quito após horas de debates em um clima de desconfiança sem que a Colômbia tenha apresentado seu acordo militar com os Estados Unidos. Os ministros falharam em conseguir um acordo para aliviar as tensões na região, alimentadas ainda por uma bilionária compra de armas russas pela Venezuela, mas o chanceler equatoriano, Fander Falconí, disse que o encontro fortaleceu o organismo sul-americano.
O grupo de nações pediu transparência nos acordos de defesa para tentar superar a desconfiança entre o governo conservador da Colômbia e seus vizinhos socialistas na região andina, mas o encontro, que tinha o objetivo de colocar em prática as intenções manifestadas pelos chefes de Estado em um encontro no mês passado, não resultou em consenso.
"Infelizmente, nós não chegamos qualquer resolução", disse o chanceler da Bolívia, David Choquehuanca, a repórteres.
O Chanceler equatoriano, anfitrião do encontro, tentou transmitir uma visão mais otimista. Ele disse que uma das chaves da reunião foi "a constatação do fortalecimento da Unasul", um organismo que "não tem que ir a instâncias internacionais para resolver problemas". Em relação ao acordo militar sobre as bases colombianas, um dos focos de preocupação de vários países da Unasul, Falconí informou que o assunto "vai seguir em discussão".
Tanto o chanceler da Bolívia, como Nicolás Maduro e Ramón Carrizales, chanceler e ministro da Defesa venezuelanos, respectivamente, lamentaram, porém, que a Colômbia não tenha apresentado o documento do acordo em discussão para a utilização de sete bases militares em território colombiano por soldados e funcionários civis dos EUA.
"Lamentavelmente não chegamos a soluções. Lamentamos a atitude da Colômbia, a intransigência da Colômbia, que não quer transparência em seu convênio sobre as bases militares", disse o ministro boliviano a jornalistas. Segundo Choquehuanca, os outros onze países membros da Unasul chegaram a um acordo, enquanto a Colômbia "ficou isolada em alguns temas".
O chanceler colombiano, Jaime Bermúdez, no entanto, disse que não foram dadas garantias em temas de cooperação, armamentos e grupos "terroristas" na região.
A Colômbia disse, de maneira explícita, que está disposta a avançar nas medidas de confiança e nas garantias sobre todos os temas, incluindo o acordo de cooperação, mas também sobre a compra de armas, armamentismo, exercícios e testes nucleares".
"Não se obteve um acordo sobre todos estes temas e será preciso seguir trabalhando com ânimo positivo para se chegar a uma solução final", disse Bermúdez à imprensa, ao destacar que a pauta não envolveu apenas a questão do acordo entre Bogotá e Washington sobre o uso das bases.
A ampliação do debate para os acordos de compras de armamentos de outros países --especialmente os recentes contratos da Venezuela com a Rússia-- foi um dos pontos defendidos pelos colombianos, como forma de sair do foco das críticas dos governos esquerdistas da região.
O ministro da Defensa da Venezuela, Ramón Carrizalez, destacou que seu país "tem a obrigação constitucional de se proteger", ao justificar um crédito de US$ 2 bilhões para a compra de armamento da Rússia, incluindo 92 tanques T 72 e um número não determinado de mísseis antiaéreos.
Mas o anúncio da compra das armas russas chamou a atenção de outros países.
O presidente do Peru, Alan García, enviou uma carta aos representantes dos 12 países em Quito pedindo um "freio" na corrida armamentista por meio de um pacto de não agressão militar.
Bermúdez defendeu a discussão de todos os negócios de compra de armas, além do problema do narcotráfico e do terrorismo, que fazem "parte da agenda central de qualquer região".
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Regarding the new US military occupation of Colombia…
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, September 16, 2009
Part 2 of 2
Já Maduro e seu colega equatoriano insistiram no tema do uso das bases militares colombianas por tropas americanas.
O chanceler colombiano disse que seu país acredita que "é preciso cumprir com o mandato estabelecido pelos presidentes na Cúpula de Bariloche, que é o de promover medidas de confiança em todos os aspectos enumerados previamente".
O ministro colombiano da Defesa, Gabriel Silva, estimou que "as garantias devem ser exigidas não apenas para um, mas para todos" os países.
"Não basta pedir garantias para uma questão e deixar de lado as preocupações dos demais", disse Silva, em referência a compra de armas russas por parte da Venezuela.
"Queremos que haja um compromisso de verdade na luta contra o narcotráfico, que se compartilhe a informação sobre as atividades ilegais [...]. Esta é a cooperação integral que estamos buscando".
O chanceler Celso Amorim disse que o Brasil quer "garantias" de que o pacto militar entre Bogotá e Washington não vá ultrapassar as fronteiras colombianas, mas reconheceu o direito de cada país da região de celebrar seus próprios acordos na área de defesa.
Tanto a Colômbia quanto a Bolívia confirmaram que caberá ao Equador, que detém a presidência rotativa da Unasul, a decisão sobre se uma nova reunião do grupo será convocada.
Para o chanceler equatoriano, na reunião houve "pontos de consenso e de desacordo". Ele disse que entre os avanços está o estabelecimento de mecanismos para troca de informação e de cooperação em matéria de segurança.
Com Reuters, Efe e France Presse
http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/f...4543.shtml
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Chávez anuncia investimento chinês de US$ 16 bi para exploração de petróleo
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, September 17, 2009
16/09/2009 - 19h20
“Chávez anuncia investimento chinês de US$ 16 bi para exploração de petróleo”
Folha de Sao Paulo
O presidente da Venezuela, Hugo Chávez, anunciou nesta quarta-feira ter assinado um acordo com a China para a exploração na faixa petrolífera do Orinoco, uma das maiores reservas mundiais, no centro-leste do território venezuelano. Segundo ele, o contrato, assinado nesta terça-feira, prevê investimentos de US$ 16 bilhões até 2012.
O acordo, mediante o qual as petroleiras chinesas formarão uma sociedade mista com a estatal PDVSA (Petróleos de Venezuela), deve produzir 450 mil barris diários de petróleo, que posteriormente serão submetidos a um processo de refino.
Chávez não informou, no entanto, quais serão as empresas chinesas que participarão da sociedade nem qual bloco será explorado nessa parceria, mas aparentemente ele se referiu a novos investimentos, separados de um montante semelhante que China havia prometido à Venezuela em troca de futuras remessas de óleo combustível.
O anúncio acontece dias depois de a Venezuela ter anunciado um convênio parecido com um consórcio russo, que envolve um investimento de US$ 20 bilhões em três anos para a produção de 450 mil barris ao dia a partir de 2012 no chamado bloco Junín 6.
Segundo a estatal Agência Bolivariana de Notícia, o presidente venezuelano disse que esses investimentos mostram claramente que a PDVSA alcançou uma rep**ação mundial e vida própria na última década. Ele também aproveitou para criticar os Estados Unidos, alvo preferencial de seus ataques.
"Os ianques diziam que na faixa não havia petróleo, mas carvão e resíduos, mas agora é a maior reserva de petróleo que existe no planeta Terra. Prova disso é que apenas essas duas nações investiram US$ 36 bilhões", disse.
Com France Presse e Reuters
http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/f...4997.shtml
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Reply to Joao da Silva
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, September 20, 2009
I read Robert Kiyosaki's book more than 10 years ago.
He said a lot of stuff that made sense at the time.
I learned about investments with John M. Templeton and some of his followers. (My friends who worked very closely with Mr. Templeton for over 25 years.)
I don't pay much attention to many people in the investment area. I usually do my own research.
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Reply to Monarchist Observer
written by Ricardo C. Amaral, September 20, 2009
What we need today in Brazil to fix things up is another Castelo Branco.
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Ricardo: A man similar to Castelo Branco would never be elected in Brazil today – the powerful lobbies and all the people who want to keep things as they are would undermine any attempt to elect another Castelo Branco.
A leader such as Castelo Branco does not get elected – he just rises into power.
To clean up the violence that is going on by the criminal gangs in Brazil we probably need to suspend a democratic system for a certain period of time until we have peace in Brazil and every Brazilian start feeling safe again.
Only under the rule of a strong man that can be accomplished.
I am sure that the Brazilian people would support a new Castelo Branco if he took power to get the job done and eliminate all the criminal gang activities in most of the Brazilian territory.
And during his administration in an effort to clean up our country of these criminals the motto of his government should be: “We take no prisoners.”
We need to get our country back from these out of control terror and intimidation activities by the criminal gangs against the Brazilian population before Brazil as a country can move forward to the next level.
We need to be realistic here. A democratic system can’t do much about the widespread increase of criminal gang activity in Brazil – it is getting worse year by year and if anything could be done under the current democratic system it would have been done by now.
If anything the criminal gang problem in Brazil is getting worse all the time. It is like a cancer that is eating you alive until you die from the disease.
You need to look at a strong-handed dictator in the same way you look at chemotherapy when you have terminal cancer - In a way, chemotherapy it is like poison, but it is the only thing that might keep you alive and going for many more years.
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By: Ricardo C. Amaral
Author / Economist
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